^{July 13, 2026}

Coming into 2026, we expected inflation to move closer to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, the Fed to cut rates by roughly 75 basis points (bps), and Treasury yields to drift lower. Instead, the first half delivered three stress tests in rapid succession: a leadership change at the Fed, a geopolitical shock that sent oil prices and yields surging, and an AI buildout that is having a measurable impact on the corporate bond market — with the Fed leadership transition among one of our key themes for the balance of the year.

^{June 29, 2026}

One of the more popular ways to get a read on investor sentiment is the longstanding AAII survey. The weekly investor sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, or AAII, goes back to 1987. The survey asks individual investors if they are bullish or bearish. The latest reading of percentage of bullish investors on June 25, 2026, was slightly elevated at 44.9%, above the IPO-heavy 2021 (39.9%) and the year-to-date average (37.4%).

^{June 22, 2026}

Chair Kevin Warsh announced five task forces aimed at modernizing key pillars of Fed policymaking — covering data collection and usage, AI and productivity, communications (including a potential overhaul of the Summary of Economic Projections), the inflation framework, and balance sheet strategy — reflecting a broad effort to address both structural and credibility challenges facing the institution.

^{June 15, 2026}

Several companies, across sectors including technology and AI infrastructure, are in advanced stages of going public. These companies would arrive on public markets with brand recognition and private-market valuations that are far larger than the typical IPO. SpaceX is the most visible example, particularly after its public S-1 filing. LPL Research recently published a blog digging into SpaceX’s S-1 filing, “Counting Down to the SpaceX Launch”. Its business combines launch services, Starlink satellite broadband, defense and government work, and ambitious longer-term opportunities in space infrastructure and AI.

^{June 8, 2026}

One of the most striking developments has been the rapid shift in expectations for Fed policy. After last Friday’s stronger than expected jobs report, markets are now pricing in roughly a 100% probability of a rate hike sometime this year, with a 67% chance of two hikes by June 2027. This marks a sharp reversal from earlier in 2026, when investors were expecting multiple rate cuts.

^{June 1, 2026}

A way to capture yields and P/Es together is with the equity risk premium (ERP). This calculation compares the earnings yield from stocks (earnings / price rather than price / earnings) to the 10-year Treasury yield.

^{May 26, 2026}

Companies participating across the value chain of agricultural production are collectively members of the agribusiness industry, and the industry’s publicly traded shares are known as agribusiness equities. This group of companies participate in a broad range of activities and therefore should not be seen as simple proxies for corn, soybeans, wheat, cattle, or fertilizer prices.

^{May 18, 2026}

The Middle East war is expected to exert a modest but meaningful drag on near-term growth through renewed supply chain disruptions, higher shipping costs, and increased uncertainty around energy and trade flows. While the shock does not appear large enough to derail expansion, it will likely weigh on activity at the margin, particularly in trade-sensitive sectors and industries reliant on timely delivery of intermediate goods like fertilizer and steel. 

^{May 11, 2026}

Warsh’s approach to monetary policy is shaped by a more traditional view of what the Fed should and should not do. Rather than leaning heavily on intervention and detailed promises about the future path of rates, Warsh has consistently argued for restraint, humility, and a greater reliance on incoming data. During his Senate confirmation process, he described the coming shift not as a change in people, but as a change in how policy is conducted: a smaller Fed balance sheet and less emphasis on explicit forward guidance than has defined the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell era.

^{May 4, 2026}

A frenzied week of macroeconomic data and big earnings news offered glimpses under the hood of both the U.S. economy and some of corporate America’s highest profile companies. Here we’ll focus on the latter, as last week brought eagerly anticipated quarterly results from mega-cap artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers Alphabet (GOOG/L), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT), as well as Apple (AAPL). While scrutiny on capital investments remains high, takeaways from results broadly leaned positive, in our view.

^{April 27, 2026}

The narrative of the “hollowing out” of American manufacturing is well-known, and perhaps just as well-known is the narrative around a coming “manufacturing renaissance” in the U.S. After four decades of globalization, manufacturing employment in the U.S. as a share of total employment has steadily decreased, from over 20% in 1980 to below 8% in 2025. The decline was driven by a trade shift in the 1980s followed by a productivity boom in the 1990s. Another major factor behind the shrinking manufacturing sector is the natural progression of economic development. As economies mature, growth increasingly shifts toward services, while agriculture and manufacturing account for smaller shares of overall activity.

^{April 20, 2026}

For most U.S. investors, fixed income means U.S. fixed income — Treasuries, investment-grade corporates, munis — as the domestic bond market is deep, liquid, and more than sufficient to build a diversified portfolio. But, in today’s increasingly fragmented global economy, U.S. fixed income investors face a pivotal choice: remain anchored in a domestic bond market that now represents less than 40% of the world’s outstanding debt or embrace a more complete opportunity set that includes non-U.S. developed and emerging market debt.

^{April 13, 2026}

Credit spreads and funding conditions are highly valuable for tracking stress in banking and for assessing any damage from geopolitical risks. Credit spreads represent the difference in borrowing costs for firms of different creditworthiness, and in times of stress, credit spreads may widen when default risk increases or credit market functioning is disrupted. Wider spreads may indicate that investors are less willing to hold debt, increasing costs for borrowers to get funding. 

^{April 6, 2026}

While the latest headlines and commentary from the White House suggest the conflict will be over within the next few weeks, which helped drive stocks higher early last week, disruptions to oil tankers and other shipments through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be ruled out, nor can the risk of further damage to energy facilities or other infrastructure in neighboring Gulf countries. In the event of a ceasefire that opens the Strait of Hormuz, we would expect oil prices to come down. But the price floor is likely higher than February levels in the $50s given what we’ve seen from the Iranian regime. On top of that, how long a possible détente might last — if we get one — remains an open question.

^{March 30, 2026}

Earnings drive stock prices over time, but not all the time. Clearly, we’re in an environment where stocks are moving on developments in the Mideast and related moves in oil prices and interest rates. At the risk of writing about something that markets may not care much about right now, here we share some thoughts on the upcoming earnings season and the earnings outlook for the rest of the year.

Despite the sharp rise in oil prices and interest rates in March, our expectation is that the upcoming earnings season will be solid. While companies with business models sensitive to oil and rates may strike a more cautious tone in their outlooks, we expect to again be impressed by the resilience of corporate America, bolstered by our energy independence.

^{March 23, 2026}

As redemption requests rise and managers respond through asset sales, return‑of‑capital programs, or permanent gating, we continue to advocate for investing in managers who apply disciplined, conservative valuation methodologies, with portfolios composed of senior secured debt securities.

^{March 16, 2026}

The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that the U.S. has firmly established itself as a net exporter of total petroleum products, a shift that first occurred in 2020 and has continued for several years. In 2024 (the latest data from the EIA), U.S. petroleum exports averaged just under 11 million barrels per day, exceeding imports of about 8.4 million barrels per day, marking the fifth consecutive year in which the U.S. held net exporter status. This structural change reflects not only higher domestic production but also the growing role of refined petroleum products and liquids flowing to global markets. As the U.S. continues to expand its export footprint, it becomes less impacted by oil price shocks that have historically weighed on domestic economic performance. For a deeper dive, consult the March Economic Navigator.

^{March 9, 2026}

It’s difficult to separate the human and emotional side of war from the economic and market impacts. Without minimizing the human element, we focus on markets here. From that perspective, the energy market is the primary way through which this crisis will affect markets globally. Oil and natural gas production and transit have already been disrupted, sending prices sharply higher. If these disruptions are severe and long lasting, they have the potential to influence inflation expectations, weigh on business confidence, and elevate volatility across asset classes, all of which will likely translate into lower stock prices. Simply put, the more intense and prolonged the geopolitical shock, the larger the likely market impact.

^{March 2, 2026}

For many investors, the desire for yield is a bedrock of their portfolio construction strategy. In this pursuit, dividend-paying stocks are often chosen for a portfolio’s equity allocation, providing a tangible cash return alongside the potential for capital appreciation. The starting point for most investors when building a portfolio of dividend paying stocks is the dividend yield. It is a straightforward, easily calculated figure that provides a framework for stock selection. Simply choose among the highest dividend yields to generate the highest level of income relative to capital invested. This dividend yield approach serves as a baseline strategy for comparison.